Prediction Track Record
How the frozen pre-match model held up against actual results — shown alongside the market — and whether matches we flagged as upset-risk actually upset.
Model vs market accuracy
Model (experimental)
Pick accuracy: 45/72 (63%)
Brier: 0.545
Market (de-vig)
Pick accuracy: 48/72 (67%)
Brier: 0.484
Pick accuracy = how often each side's most-likely 1X2 outcome matched the result. Brier = average squared error of the full probabilities (lower is better). Market scored only on matches with Pinnacle odds, so its match count can be smaller.
Upset-risk tag audit
Of the matches we tagged upset-risk, how often did the underdog avoid losing (win or draw)?
12/35 underdog not lost (34%)
won outright: 3/35 (9%)
- Upset A+underdog not lost 4/16 · won outright 1/16
- Upset Aunderdog not lost 3/10 · won outright 2/10
- Upset Bunderdog not lost 5/9 · won outright 0/9
- Upset A+Panama 0-2 England·Panamalost
- Upset A+New Zealand 1-5 Belgium·New Zealandlost
- Upset A+Uruguay 0-1 Spain·Uruguaylost
- Upset BNorway 1-4 France·Norwaylost
- Upset A+Senegal 5-0 Iraq·Iraqlost
- Upset BTurkey 3-2 United States·United Stateslost
- Upset A+Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands·Tunisialost
- Upset BJapan 1-1 Sweden·Swedendrew
- Upset ACuraçao 0-2 Ivory Coast·Curaçaolost
- Upset ASouth Africa 1-0 South Korea·South Africawon
- Upset A+Morocco 4-2 Haiti·Haitilost
- Upset AScotland 0-3 Brazil·Scotlandlost
- Upset BBosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar·Qatarlost
- Upset A+Colombia 1-0 DR Congo·DR Congolost
- Upset BPanama 0-1 Croatia·Panamalost
- Upset A+Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan·Uzbekistanlost
- Upset A+Argentina 2-0 Austria·Austrialost
- Upset A+Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde·Cape Verdedrew
- Upset A+Tunisia 0-4 Japan·Tunisialost
- Upset AGermany 2-1 Ivory Coast·Ivory Coastlost
- Upset ANetherlands 5-1 Sweden·Swedenlost
- Upset A+Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina·Bosnia and Herzegovinalost
- Upset ACzechia 1-1 South Africa·South Africadrew
- Upset AUzbekistan 1-3 Colombia·Uzbekistanlost
- Upset AGhana 1-0 Panama·Ghanawon
- Upset A+Portugal 1-1 DR Congo·DR Congodrew
- Upset A+Iraq 1-4 Norway·Iraqlost
- Upset AFrance 3-1 Senegal·Senegallost
- Upset BIran 2-2 New Zealand·New Zealanddrew
- Upset A+Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay·Saudi Arabiadrew
- Upset BBelgium 1-1 Egypt·Egyptdrew
- Upset A+Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador·Ivory Coastwon
- Upset AHaiti 0-1 Scotland·Haitilost
- Upset BBrazil 1-1 Morocco·Moroccodrew
- Upset BCanada 1-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina·Bosnia and Herzegovinadrew
Match by match
Group J
Jordan
1 - 3
Argentina
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Group J
Algeria
3 - 3
Austria
Model pickAway✗
Market pickDraw✓
ActualDraw
Group K
Colombia
0 - 0
Portugal
Model pickAway✗
Market pickAway✗
ActualDraw
Group K
DR Congo
3 - 1
Uzbekistan
Model pickAway✗
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group LUpset A+Underdog: lost
Panama
0 - 2
England
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Panama
Group L
Croatia
2 - 1
Ghana
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group G
Egypt
1 - 1
Iran
Model pickAway✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Group GUpset A+Underdog: lost
New Zealand
1 - 5
Belgium
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: New Zealand
Group H
Cape Verde
0 - 0
Saudi Arabia
Model pickAway✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Group HUpset A+Underdog: lost
Uruguay
0 - 1
Spain
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Uruguay
Group IUpset BUnderdog: lost
Norway
1 - 4
France
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Norway
Group IUpset A+Underdog: lost
Senegal
5 - 0
Iraq
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Iraq
Group DUpset BUnderdog: lost
Turkey
3 - 2
United States
Model pickHome✓
Market pickAway✗
ActualHome
Underdog: United States
Group D
Paraguay
0 - 0
Australia
Model pickHome✗
Market pickDraw✓
ActualDraw
Group FUpset A+Underdog: lost
Tunisia
1 - 3
Netherlands
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Tunisia
Group FUpset BUnderdog: drew
Japan
1 - 1
Sweden
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Underdog: Sweden
Group E
Ecuador
2 - 1
Germany
Model pickHome✓
Market pickAway✗
ActualHome
Group EUpset AUnderdog: lost
Curaçao
0 - 2
Ivory Coast
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Curaçao
Group A
Czechia
0 - 3
Mexico
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Group AUpset AUnderdog: won
South Africa
1 - 0
South Korea
Model pickAway✗
Market pickAway✗
ActualHome
Underdog: South Africa
Group CUpset A+Underdog: lost
Morocco
4 - 2
Haiti
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Haiti
Group CUpset AUnderdog: lost
Scotland
0 - 3
Brazil
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Scotland
Group B
Switzerland
2 - 1
Canada
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group BUpset BUnderdog: lost
Bosnia and Herzegovina
3 - 1
Qatar
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Qatar
Group KUpset A+Underdog: lost
Colombia
1 - 0
DR Congo
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: DR Congo
Group LUpset BUnderdog: lost
Panama
0 - 1
Croatia
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Panama
Group L
England
0 - 0
Ghana
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Group KUpset A+Underdog: lost
Portugal
5 - 0
Uzbekistan
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Uzbekistan
Group J
Jordan
1 - 2
Algeria
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Group I
Norway
3 - 2
Senegal
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group I
France
3 - 0
Iraq
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group JUpset A+Underdog: lost
Argentina
2 - 0
Austria
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Austria
Group G
New Zealand
1 - 3
Egypt
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Group HUpset A+Underdog: drew
Uruguay
2 - 2
Cape Verde
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Underdog: Cape Verde
Group G
Belgium
0 - 0
Iran
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Group H
Spain
4 - 0
Saudi Arabia
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group FUpset A+Underdog: lost
Tunisia
0 - 4
Japan
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Tunisia
Group E
Ecuador
0 - 0
Curaçao
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Group EUpset AUnderdog: lost
Germany
2 - 1
Ivory Coast
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Ivory Coast
Group FUpset AUnderdog: lost
Netherlands
5 - 1
Sweden
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Sweden
Group D
Turkey
0 - 1
Paraguay
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualAway
Group C
Brazil
3 - 0
Haiti
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group C
Scotland
0 - 1
Morocco
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Group D
United States
2 - 0
Australia
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group A
Mexico
1 - 0
South Korea
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group B
Canada
6 - 0
Qatar
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group BUpset A+Underdog: lost
Switzerland
4 - 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Group AUpset AUnderdog: drew
Czechia
1 - 1
South Africa
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Underdog: South Africa
Group KUpset AUnderdog: lost
Uzbekistan
1 - 3
Colombia
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Uzbekistan
Group LUpset AUnderdog: won
Ghana
1 - 0
Panama
Model pickAway✗
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Ghana
Group L
England
4 - 2
Croatia
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group KUpset A+Underdog: drew
Portugal
1 - 1
DR Congo
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Underdog: DR Congo
Group J
Austria
3 - 1
Jordan
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group J
Argentina
3 - 0
Algeria
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group IUpset A+Underdog: lost
Iraq
1 - 4
Norway
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Iraq
Group IUpset AUnderdog: lost
France
3 - 1
Senegal
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Underdog: Senegal
Group GUpset BUnderdog: drew
Iran
2 - 2
New Zealand
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Underdog: New Zealand
Group HUpset A+Underdog: drew
Saudi Arabia
1 - 1
Uruguay
Model pickAway✗
Market pickAway✗
ActualDraw
Underdog: Saudi Arabia
Group GUpset BUnderdog: drew
Belgium
1 - 1
Egypt
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Underdog: Egypt
Group H
Spain
0 - 0
Cape Verde
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Group F
Sweden
5 - 1
Tunisia
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group EUpset A+Underdog: won
Ivory Coast
1 - 0
Ecuador
Model pickAway✗
Market pickAway✗
ActualHome
Underdog: Ivory Coast
Group F
Netherlands
2 - 2
Japan
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Group E
Germany
7 - 1
Curaçao
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group D
Australia
2 - 0
Turkey
Model pickAway✗
Market pickAway✗
ActualHome
Group CUpset AUnderdog: lost
Haiti
0 - 1
Scotland
Model pickAway✓
Market pickAway✓
ActualAway
Underdog: Haiti
Group CUpset BUnderdog: drew
Brazil
1 - 1
Morocco
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Underdog: Morocco
Group B
Qatar
1 - 1
Switzerland
Model pickAway✗
Market pickAway✗
ActualDraw
Group D
United States
4 - 1
Paraguay
Model pickAway✗
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group BUpset BUnderdog: drew
Canada
1 - 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Model pickHome✗
Market pickHome✗
ActualDraw
Underdog: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Group A
South Korea
2 - 1
Czechia
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Group A
Mexico
2 - 0
South Africa
Model pickHome✓
Market pickHome✓
ActualHome
Predictions are the frozen pre-tournament model (dc-v1.1); the model is not re-run per match, so each row reflects the pre-match prediction. Experimental — shown alongside the market for comparison only, not betting advice.