Match Predictions
Group-stage model probabilities, alongside market de-vig probabilities.
These are pre-kickoff model probabilities shown next to de-vigged market odds — never a single "answer". How this works →
Model Version
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Group
Date
What the badges mean
Upset A+Extreme Elo gap (≥250 pts), yet the underdog still has a 35%+ chance of not losing — the crowd expects a blowout, the model says it's closer than you think.
Upset ALarge Elo gap (≥200 pts) with the underdog's not-lose probability still above 35%. A clear favourite, but not a foregone conclusion.
Upset BNotable Elo gap (≥150 pts) with the underdog's not-lose probability above 40%. The stronger team is favoured but far from a certainty.
Diverges from marketThe model's most-likely outcome differs from the market's. A divergence doesn't mean the market is wrong — more often it's a model limitation; for comparison only, not betting advice.
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