Knockout Bracket

Round of 32 → Final. New 48-team format: the 12 group winners and runners-up, plus the 8 best third-placed teams. Matchups are set after the group stage — teams and predictions appear once the draw is in.

The bracket fills from real results as they land; champion and advancement odds are experimental Monte Carlo output. How this works →

Model Version

Title to winExperimentalSpain 54.4% to win

Each team's modelled chance to win the tournament and to reach each round, from the full-tournament Monte Carlo. Experimental — there is no betting market for these to compare against.

Team	Champion	Final	SF	QF	R16
SpainH	54.4%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
ArgentinaJ	45.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
AustriaJ	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AustraliaD	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Bosnia and HerzegovinaB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BelgiumG	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%
BrazilC	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
CanadaB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
DR CongoK	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SwitzerlandB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Ivory CoastE	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ColombiaK	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Cape VerdeH	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CuraçaoE	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CzechiaA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
GermanyE	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Bracket path

Real matchup / resultProjected occupant (model, experimental)

M74

Germany4

ParaguayPK5

M77

France3

Sweden0

M73

South Africa0

Canada1

M75

Netherlands3

MoroccoPK4

M83

Portugal2

Croatia1

M84

Spain3

Austria0

M81

United States2

Bosnia and Herzegovina0

M82

Belgiumaet3

Senegal2

M76

Brazil2

Japan1

M78

Ivory Coast1

Norway2

M79

Mexico2

Ecuador0

M80

England2

DR Congo1

M86

Argentinaaet3

Cape Verde2

M88

Australia3

EgyptPK5

M85

Switzerland2

Algeria0

M87

Colombia1

Ghana0

Round of 32

Round of 16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final

M74

Germany4

ParaguayPK5

M77

France3

Sweden0

M89

Paraguay0

France1

M73

South Africa0

Canada1

M75

Netherlands3

MoroccoPK4

M90

Canada0

Morocco3

M97

France2

Morocco0

M83

Portugal2

Croatia1

M84

Spain3

Austria0

M93

Portugal0

Spain1

M81

United States2

Bosnia and Herzegovina0

M82

Belgiumaet3

Senegal2

M94

United States1

Belgium4

M98

Spain2

Belgium1

M101

France0

Spain2

M76

Brazil2

Japan1

M78

Ivory Coast1

Norway2

M91

Brazil1

Norway2

M79

Mexico2

Ecuador0

M80

England2

DR Congo1

M92

Mexico2

England3

M99

Norway1

Englandaet2

M86

Argentinaaet3

Cape Verde2

M88

Australia3

EgyptPK5

M95

Argentina3

Egypt2

M85

Switzerland2

Algeria0

M87

Colombia1

Ghana0

M96

SwitzerlandPK4

Colombia3

M100

Argentinaaet3

Switzerland1

M102

England1

Argentina2

M104

Spainaet1

Argentina0

Third-place play-off

M103

France4

England6

Knockout predictions

Single-match advance probability (regulation-time 1X2 with the draw split — i.e. including extra time / penalties), shown alongside the market where odds exist. Experimental.

Round of 32

South Africa

0–1

Canada

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Brazil

2–1

Japan

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Germany

4–5

Paraguay

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Netherlands

3–4

Morocco

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Ivory Coast

1–2

Norway

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

France

3–0

Sweden

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Mexico

2–0

Ecuador

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

England

2–1

DR Congo

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Belgium

3–2

Senegal

aet

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

United States

2–0

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Spain

3–0

Austria

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Portugal

2–1

Croatia

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Switzerland

2–0

Algeria

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Australia

3–5

Egypt

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Argentina

3–2

Cape Verde

aet

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 32

Colombia

1–0

Ghana

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 16

Canada

0–3

Morocco

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 16

Paraguay

0–1

France

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 16

Brazil

1–2

Norway

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 16

Mexico

2–3

England

To advance44% · 56%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

28.8%

Draw

30.4%

Away

40.8%

Market (de-vig)

No market odds to compare yet

Round of 16

Portugal

0–1

Spain

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 16

United States

1–4

Belgium

Predictions are being prepared

Round of 16

Argentina

3–2

Egypt

To advance81% · 19%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

70.4%

Draw

20.3%

Away

9.3%

Market (de-vig)

Home

71.9%

Draw

19.6%

Away

8.5%

Round of 16

Switzerland

4–3

Colombia

To advance43% · 57%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

28.0%

Draw

30.3%

Away

41.7%

Market (de-vig)

Home

26.4%

Draw

31.5%

Away

42.2%

Quarter-finals

France

2–0

Morocco

To advance70% · 30%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

56.7%

Draw

26.4%

Away

16.9%

Market (de-vig)

Home

60.9%

Draw

24.8%

Away

14.2%

Quarter-finals

Spain

2–1

Belgium

To advance73% · 27%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

60.0%

Draw

25.1%

Away

14.8%

Market (de-vig)

Home

59.1%

Draw

24.3%

Away

16.5%

Quarter-finals

Norway

1–2

England

aet

To advance41% · 59%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

26.5%

Draw

30.0%

Away

43.6%

Market (de-vig)

Home

24.2%

Draw

26.0%

Away

49.7%

Quarter-finals

Argentina

3–1

Switzerland

aet

To advance67% · 33%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

53.6%

Draw

27.5%

Away

18.9%

Market (de-vig)

Home

56.7%

Draw

26.6%

Away

16.7%

Semi-finals

France

0–2

Spain

To advance43% · 57%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

28.2%

Draw

30.3%

Away

41.5%

Market (de-vig)

Home

38.9%

Draw

30.4%

Away

30.6%

Semi-finals

England

1–2

Argentina

To advance43% · 57%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

27.5%

Draw

30.2%

Away

42.3%

Market (de-vig)

Home

35.0%

Draw

33.5%

Away

31.5%

Third place

France

4–6

England

To advance55% · 45%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

39.6%

Draw

30.5%

Away

29.9%

Market (de-vig)

Home

51.4%

Draw

23.3%

Away

25.3%

Final

Spain

1–0

Argentina

aet

To advance54% · 46%

Model (experimental)Experimental

Home

38.8%

Draw

30.6%

Away

30.6%

Market (de-vig)

Home

42.3%

Draw

31.7%

Away

26.0%