Advancement Odds
Each team's probability of finishing 1st / 2nd / qualifying as a best third.
Simulations: 10,000 · Model dc-v1.2 · As of Jul 19, 2026
Model Version
Group A
South Africa
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Mexico
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
South Korea
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Czechia
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group B
Canada
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 100.0%
Switzerland
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Qatar
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group C
Morocco
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Brazil
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Haiti
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Scotland
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group D
United States
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Australia
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Paraguay
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 100.0%
Turkey
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group E
Ecuador
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 100.0%
Ivory Coast
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Germany
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Curaçao
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group F
Netherlands
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Sweden
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 100.0%
Japan
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Tunisia
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group G
Belgium
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Egypt
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
New Zealand
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Iran
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group H
Spain
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Cape Verde
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Saudi Arabia
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Uruguay
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group I
Senegal
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 100.0%
Norway
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
France
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Iraq
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group J
Argentina
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Algeria
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 100.0%
Austria
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Jordan
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group K
Portugal
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
DR Congo
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 100.0%
Colombia
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Uzbekistan
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Group L
Croatia
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 100.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Ghana
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 100.0%
England
Reach R32
100.0%
Win group 100.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%
Panama
Reach R32
0.0%
Win group 0.0%Runner-up 0.0%Best 3rd 0.0%